Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 6

Dundee Utd–Kilmarnock

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tannadice Park, Dundee

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'KilmarnockB. Anderson (assist: D. Watson)
56'KilmarnockR. Deas (assist: D. Thompson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Kilmarnock
18	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	7
17	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	7
9	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
412	Passes	295
315	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.63 · Kilmarnock 1.26. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Dundee Utd 18 · Kilmarnock 17; on target 7 and 7.
Dundee Utd kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Ross Hardie, Scotland→

5.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Dundee Utd, 1.06 for Kilmarnock.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Dundee Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 685 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win51.8%

Draw25.9%

Kilmarnock to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Dundee Utd lead at half-time37.3%

Level at half-time42.2%

Kilmarnock lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Kilmarnock ahead62.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 685 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 11Actual: 8
Kilmarnock: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 4Actual: 9
Kilmarnock: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.63

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kilmarnock's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kilmarnock score1.26

Attack: Kilmarnock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.7%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.