Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 5

Kilmarnock–Celtic

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'CelticD. Maeda (assist: M. Saracchi)
83'KilmarnockD. Watson (assist: G. Kiltie)
90'CelticK. Ịheanachọ (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kilmarnock		Celtic
12	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	18
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
24%	Possession	76%
209	Passes	732
150	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kilmarnock 0.73 · Celtic 2.22. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Kilmarnock 12 · Celtic 21; on target 2 and 6.
Celtic kept the ball more (76%).

Referee

John Beaton, Scotland→

4.68

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.7%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.74 for Kilmarnock, 2.44 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 92.0% (X2 — draw or Celtic win).
These values were computed from 681 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kilmarnock to win8.0%

Draw16.3%

Celtic to win75.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kilmarnock win or draw24.3%

12 — any result other than a draw83.7%

X2 — draw or Celtic win92.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kilmarnock lead at half-time11.6%

Level at half-time37.1%

Celtic lead at half-time51.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Kilmarnock ahead or level48.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or Celtic ahead88.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 681 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kilmarnock: at least 9Actual: 10
Celtic: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Kilmarnock: at least 3Actual: 6
Celtic: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kilmarnock score0.73

Attack: Kilmarnock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celtic score2.22

Attack: Celtic score 71% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Kilmarnock's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.8%0–310.4%1–210.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 681 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 113 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.