La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 23

Las Palmas–Villarreal

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'VillarrealÁlex Baena (assist: Sergi Cardona)
66'VillarrealAyoze Pérez (assist: Álex Baena)
84'Las PalmasManu Fuster (assist: O. McBurnie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Las Palmas		Villarreal
20	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	4
16	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	5
57%	Possession	43%
471	Passes	366
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Las Palmas 1.12 · Villarreal 1.83. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Las Palmas 20 · Villarreal 9; on target 4 and 4.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Francisco Hernández→

5.12

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.5%: “Villarreal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Las Palmas, 1.98 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 83.1% (X2 — draw or Villarreal win).
These values were computed from 983 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Las Palmas to win16.9%

Draw22.7%

Villarreal to win60.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 848 of 1,355 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

6	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Las Palmas lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time42.5%

Villarreal lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Las Palmas ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Villarreal ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 983 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 12
Villarreal: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 6
Villarreal: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Las Palmas score1.12

Attack: Las Palmas score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.83

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.83 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–211.0%0–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.