La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 22

Espanyol–Real Madrid

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 9%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

85'EspanyolC. Romero (assist: O. El Hilali)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Espanyol		Real Madrid
5	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	14
7	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	8
0	Offsides	1
24%	Possession	76%
242	Passes	793
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Espanyol 0.75 · Real Madrid 2.06. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Espanyol 5 · Real Madrid 21; on target 2 and 7.
Real Madrid kept the ball more (76%).

Referee

Alejandro Muñiz→

4.81

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.5%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.81 for Espanyol, 2.47 for Real Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 91.1% (X2 — draw or Real Madrid win).
These values were computed from 974 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Espanyol to win8.9%

Draw16.6%

Real Madrid to win74.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 559 of 731 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	3

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Espanyol lead at half-time7.9%

Level at half-time35.8%

Real Madrid lead at half-time56.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Espanyol ahead or level43.6%

12 — not level at half-time64.2%

X2 — level or Real Madrid ahead92.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 974 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Espanyol: at least 14Actual: 14
Real Madrid: at least 9Actual: 3

Corners

Espanyol: at least 3Actual: 1
Real Madrid: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Espanyol score0.75

Attack: Espanyol score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Madrid score2.06

Attack: Real Madrid score 56% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Espanyol concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.06 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–211.7%1–210.2%0–39.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.