La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 22

Atletico Madrid–Mallorca

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Atletico MadridSamuel Lino (assist: G. Simeone)
90+3'Atletico MadridA. Griezmann (assist: Rodrigo Riquelme)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Mallorca
17	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
461	Passes	415
395	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.75 · Mallorca 0.70. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Atletico Madrid 17 · Mallorca 10; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

Víctor García→

4.76

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.7%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Atletico Madrid, 0.64 for Mallorca.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 973 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win64.7%

Draw23.6%

Mallorca to win11.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time43.9%

Level at half-time43.7%

Mallorca lead at half-time12.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level87.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Mallorca ahead56.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 973 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 9
Mallorca: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 5Actual: 10
Mallorca: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.75

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Mallorca's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mallorca score0.70

Attack: Mallorca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.6%2–014.6%1–111.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.