Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round

Napredak–Mladost Novi Sad

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 June 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Mladost, Kruševac

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Goals and red cards

76'NapredakD. Stoiljković

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napredak 1.32 · Mladost Novi Sad 0.99. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

D. Nikolić→

3.78

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Napredak to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Napredak, 0.99 for Mladost Novi Sad.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (1X — Napredak win or draw).
These values were computed from 804 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napredak to win43.4%

Draw29.8%

Mladost Novi Sad to win26.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,518 of 5,655 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Napredak win or draw73.2%

12 — any result other than a draw70.2%

X2 — draw or Mladost Novi Sad win56.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Napredak lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time42.1%

Mladost Novi Sad lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Napredak ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Mladost Novi Sad ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 804 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Napredak: at least 14
Mladost Novi Sad: at least 14

Corners

Napredak: at least 3
Mladost Novi Sad: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (52.7%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napredak score1.32

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Novi Sad's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mladost Novi Sad score0.99

Attack: Mladost Novi Sad score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napredak's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.4%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.