Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Round - 7

FK Partizan–Vojvodina

3–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Partizana, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'FK PartizanB. Natcho
26'FK PartizanM. Vukotić (assist: V. Dragojević)
56'VojvodinaL. Romanić (assist: B. Yusuf)
71'FK PartizanB. Natcho
81'VojvodinaD. Kokanović (assist: L. Romanić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		Vojvodina
11	Shots	20
9	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
461	Passes	407
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 1.72 · Vojvodina 1.23. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots FK Partizan 11 · Vojvodina 20; on target 9 and 7.

Referee

M. Mitić→

4.04

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.6%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “Vojvodina to win” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for FK Partizan, 1.23 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 801 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win48.6%

Draw25.6%

Vojvodina to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

FK Partizan lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time41.2%

Vojvodina lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 801 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 13Actual: 13
Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 3Actual: 3
Vojvodina: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score1.72

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.23

Attack: Vojvodina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.5%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.