Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 7

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Tekstilac Odžaci

2–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 May 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

Goals and red cards

8'Tekstilac OdžaciN. Ahcin
14'Tekstilac OdžaciM. Zekić (assist: L. Vasić)
21'Tekstilac OdžaciI. Davidović (assist: S. Stojanovic)
30'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVN. Robertha (assist: M. Bogićević)
62'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVN. Robertha (assist: I. Babić)
83'Tekstilac OdžaciM. Abiodun

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Tekstilac Odžaci
26	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	5
24	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	8
10	Corners	2
6	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
449	Passes	298
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.31 · Tekstilac Odžaci 1.00. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 26 · Tekstilac Odžaci 9; on target 10 and 5.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

D. Nikolić→

3.67

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.00 for Tekstilac Odžaci.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win or draw).
These values were computed from 800 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win42.9%

Draw29.9%

Tekstilac Odžaci to win27.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	6

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time47.2%

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Tekstilac Odžaci ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 800 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 18
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 17Actual: 19

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 10
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.31

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score1.00

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.3%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.