Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 6

Jedinstvo Ub–IMT Novi Beograd

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Dragan Dzajić, Ub

Goals and red cards

12'IMT Novi BeogradVladimir Lučić (assist: V. Radočaj)
41'IMT Novi BeogradL. Luković (assist: I. Belfodil)
90'IMT Novi BeogradV. Radočaj

Match statistics

Match statistics
Jedinstvo Ub		IMT Novi Beograd
10	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	6
4	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
409	Passes	318
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Jedinstvo Ub 1.04 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.72. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Jedinstvo Ub 10 · IMT Novi Beograd 15; on target 1 and 7.
Jedinstvo Ub kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

I. Stamenković→

3.28

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.0%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Jedinstvo Ub, 1.72 for IMT Novi Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (X2 — draw or IMT Novi Beograd win).
These values were computed from 800 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Jedinstvo Ub to win21.5%

Draw25.6%

IMT Novi Beograd to win53.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,773 of 6,688 predictions were correct (56.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Jedinstvo Ub win or draw47.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.4%

X2 — draw or IMT Novi Beograd win78.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time29.2%

Level at half-time44.1%

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Jedinstvo Ub ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or IMT Novi Beograd ahead70.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 800 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 14
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 20

Corners

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 4Actual: 2
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,890 of 5,366 predictions were correct (53.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score1.04

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.72

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.7%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 800 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.