Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Round - 5

FK Crvena Zvezda–Vojvodina

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 12%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'FK Crvena ZvezdaJ. Šljivić (assist: T. Elsnik)
84'VojvodinaS. Medojević (assist: V. Savicevic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Vojvodina
17	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
647	Passes	398
555	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.87 · Vojvodina 0.65. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 17 · Vojvodina 11; on target 4 and 2.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Nikolić→

3.70

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.6%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.87 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.65 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 95.3% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 794 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win83.6%

Draw11.7%

Vojvodina to win4.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time50.5%

Level at half-time36.4%

Vojvodina lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead49.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 794 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 13Actual: 11
Vojvodina: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 5Actual: 5
Vojvodina: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.87

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 122% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score0.65

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%3–012.2%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.