Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 4

Jedinstvo Ub–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Dragan Dzajić, Ub

Goals and red cards

90+1'Jedinstvo UbA. Paic (assist: V. Kijevcanin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Jedinstvo Ub		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
16	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
287	Passes	393
218	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Jedinstvo Ub 1.12 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.20. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Jedinstvo Ub 16 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10; on target 6 and 3.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

I. Stamenković→

3.29

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.0%: “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win”. Second comes “Jedinstvo Ub to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Jedinstvo Ub, 1.20 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 69.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 790 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Jedinstvo Ub to win32.8%

Draw30.2%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win37.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	20

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time34.0%

Level at half-time46.3%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Jedinstvo Ub ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead66.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 790 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 19
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 3Actual: 8
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score1.12

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.20

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–110.9%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.