Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 4

Radnicki NIS–Tekstilac Odžaci

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski Stadion Čair, Niš

Goals and red cards

15'Radnicki NISTrivante Stewart (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki NIS		Tekstilac Odžaci
9	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	3
35%	Possession	65%
265	Passes	484
187	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki NIS 1.62 · Tekstilac Odžaci 1.07. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Radnicki NIS 9 · Tekstilac Odžaci 5; on target 5 and 2.
Tekstilac Odžaci kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Ilić→

4.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Radnicki NIS to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Radnicki NIS, 1.07 for Tekstilac Odžaci.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Radnicki NIS win or draw).
These values were computed from 790 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki NIS to win49.7%

Draw26.6%

Tekstilac Odžaci to win23.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Radnicki NIS win or draw76.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or Tekstilac Odžaci win50.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time29.0%

Level at half-time42.9%

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki NIS ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Tekstilac Odžaci ahead71.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 790 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki NIS: at least 16Actual: 20
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 16Actual: 17

Corners

Radnicki NIS: at least 4Actual: 3
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.62

Attack: Radnicki NIS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score1.07

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.5%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.