Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Round - 4

TSC Backa Topola–FK Crvena Zvezda

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: TSC Arena, Bačka Topola

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'TSC Backa TopolaStefan Jovanović
76'FK Crvena ZvezdaN. Radonjic (assist: C. Ndiaye)
90+2'FK Crvena ZvezdaT. Elsnik

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		FK Crvena Zvezda
6	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	7
0	Offsides	8
38%	Possession	62%
287	Passes	470
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 0.93 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.35. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 6 · FK Crvena Zvezda 13; on target 2 and 6.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

L. Lukić→

4.60

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.6%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for TSC Backa Topola, 2.35 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 88.2% (X2 — draw or FK Crvena Zvezda win).
These values were computed from 789 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win11.8%

Draw18.6%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win69.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time15.1%

Level at half-time38.3%

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time46.6%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level53.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or FK Crvena Zvezda ahead84.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 789 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 15Actual: 21
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 3Actual: 2
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score0.93

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.35

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 124% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.7%0–210.5%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.