Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Round - 4

OFK Beograd–Vojvodina

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 2 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.6% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'VojvodinaM. Butean (assist: L. Romanić)
17'VojvodinaB. Yusuf (penalty)
49'OFK BeogradN. Knezevic (penalty)
90+7'VojvodinaĐ. Crnomarković · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFK Beograd		Vojvodina
15	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
64%	Possession	36%
429	Passes	256
355	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFK Beograd 1.51 · Vojvodina 1.43. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots OFK Beograd 15 · Vojvodina 10; on target 5 and 4.
OFK Beograd kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

N. Simović→

4.83

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “OFK Beograd to win”. Second comes “Vojvodina to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for OFK Beograd, 1.43 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 788 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFK Beograd to win38.5%

Draw26.6%

Vojvodina to win34.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

OFK Beograd lead at half-time20.1%

Level at half-time40.4%

Vojvodina lead at half-time39.5%

First-half double chance

1X — OFK Beograd ahead or level60.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead79.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 788 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFK Beograd: at least 14Actual: 21
Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

OFK Beograd: at least 4Actual: 9
Vojvodina: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.51

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.43

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.4%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.