Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Round - 3

Mladost Lucani–Novi Pazar

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 28 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mladost Stadium Lučani, Lučani

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'Novi PazarA. Kovačević · red card
9'Mladost LucaniO. Bondzulic (assist: Z. Udovicic)
90+1'Novi PazarD. Cvetinovic (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Lucani		Novi Pazar
6	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
34%	Possession	66%
306	Passes	633
241	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Lucani 1.20 · Novi Pazar 1.42. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Mladost Lucani 6 · Novi Pazar 11; on target 4 and 2.
Novi Pazar kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

A. Stojanović→

2.70

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “Mladost Lucani to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Mladost Lucani, 1.42 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 787 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Lucani to win30.6%

Draw28.1%

Novi Pazar to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time28.0%

Level at half-time42.6%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time29.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Lucani ahead or level70.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead72.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 787 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mladost Lucani: at least 13Actual: 17
Novi Pazar: at least 15Actual: 15

Corners

Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 5
Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Lucani score1.20

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.42

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.6%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.