Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 2

Jedinstvo Ub–Cukaricki

4–1

HT 4–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 24 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Dragan Dzajić, Ub

Goals and red cards

4'Jedinstvo UbE. Hoard
9'Jedinstvo UbE. Hoard
15'CukarickiD. Ivanovic (assist: M. Pavkov)
25'Jedinstvo UbS. Rakic
28'Jedinstvo UbE. Hoard (assist: M. Mitrović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Jedinstvo Ub		Cukaricki
18	Shots	13
9	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
283	Passes	368
204	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Jedinstvo Ub 0.96 · Cukaricki 1.66. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Jedinstvo Ub 18 · Cukaricki 13; on target 9 and 2.
Cukaricki kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. Lukić→

4.57

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.6%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for Jedinstvo Ub, 1.66 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Cukaricki win).
These values were computed from 784 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Jedinstvo Ub to win20.3%

Draw26.1%

Cukaricki to win53.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,913 of 3,689 predictions were correct (51.9%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–1

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time42.6%

Cukaricki lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Jedinstvo Ub ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 784 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 20
Cukaricki: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 3Actual: 5
Cukaricki: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score0.96

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.66

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%0–111.4%1–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.