Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Round - 2

Radnicki 1923–FK Crvena Zvezda

4–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 23 April 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Čika Dača, Kragujevac

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 6%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Radnicki 1923M. Vidosavljevic (assist: B. Mircetic)
57'Radnicki 1923Issa Bah (assist: S. Zeljković)
62'Radnicki 1923M. Gluščević (assist: K. Bevis)
66'FK Crvena ZvezdaBruno Duarte (assist: Seol Young-Woo)
73'Radnicki 1923M. Mitrovic (assist: B. Mircetic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		FK Crvena Zvezda
20	Shots	21
10	Shots on target	9
15	Shots inside the box	13
8	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	15
0	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
212	Passes	397
152	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 0.67 · FK Crvena Zvezda 2.71. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Radnicki 1923 20 · FK Crvena Zvezda 21; on target 10 and 9.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

S. Ostraćanin→

3.85

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.1%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.67 for Radnicki 1923, 2.71 for FK Crvena Zvezda.
The highest double chance value is 94.3% (X2 — draw or FK Crvena Zvezda win).
These values were computed from 783 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win5.7%

Draw13.2%

FK Crvena Zvezda to win81.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time9.1%

Level at half-time34.0%

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time56.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level43.1%

12 — not level at half-time66.0%

X2 — level or FK Crvena Zvezda ahead90.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 783 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 16Actual: 18
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 3Actual: 6
FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 5Actual: 15

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score0.67

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.71

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 127% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.8%0–311.7%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.