Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 2

Tekstilac Odžaci–Železničar Pančevo

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 22 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava, Bačka Palanka

Goals and red cards

2'Železničar PančevoMarko Ćurić

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tekstilac Odžaci		Železničar Pančevo
15	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	3
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	4
5	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
369	Passes	248
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tekstilac Odžaci 1.15 · Železničar Pančevo 1.30. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Tekstilac Odžaci 15 · Železničar Pančevo 9; on target 5 and 7.
Tekstilac Odžaci kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

P. Ilić→

4.03

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “Tekstilac Odžaci to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Tekstilac Odžaci, 1.30 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 780 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tekstilac Odžaci to win31.6%

Draw29.3%

Železničar Pančevo to win39.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time42.2%

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Tekstilac Odžaci ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Železničar Pančevo ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 780 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 17Actual: 15
Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 3Actual: 7
Železničar Pančevo: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score1.15

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.30

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.3%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.