Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Round - 1

IMT Novi Beograd–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

2–4

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 April 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

Goals and red cards

5'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVN. Robertha (assist: V. Prijovic)
21'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVN. Robertha (assist: S. Tomović)
45'IMT Novi BeogradN. Krstic (assist: Antoine Batisse)
45+2'IMT Novi BeogradAntoine Batisse
85'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVK. Osei (assist: Leo Antonio)
90+3'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
22	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	2
4	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
445	Passes	327
373	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.61 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.93. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 22 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 13; on target 4 and 6.
IMT Novi Beograd kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Mitić→

4.09

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.2%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for IMT Novi Beograd, 0.93 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 780 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win53.2%

Draw26.6%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win20.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time45.8%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 780 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 14
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 8
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.61

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.93

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–012.0%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.