Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

Cukaricki–IMT Novi Beograd

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 7 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion na Banovom brdu, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'IMT Novi BeogradI. Belfodil
76'IMT Novi BeogradVladimir Lučić (assist: V. Radočaj)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cukaricki		IMT Novi Beograd
17	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
486	Passes	357
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cukaricki 1.58 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.12. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Cukaricki 17 · IMT Novi Beograd 17; on target 3 and 5.
Cukaricki kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Milenković→

4.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Cukaricki, 1.12 for IMT Novi Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (1X — Cukaricki win or draw).
These values were computed from 772 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cukaricki to win47.3%

Draw27.0%

IMT Novi Beograd to win25.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cukaricki lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time41.0%

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time18.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cukaricki ahead or level81.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or IMT Novi Beograd ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 772 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cukaricki: at least 14Actual: 14
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 15

Corners

Cukaricki: at least 4Actual: 6
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cukaricki score1.58

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.12

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.3%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.