Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

Mladost Lucani–Vojvodina

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Monday, 7 April 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mladost Stadium Lučani, Lučani

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'VojvodinaL. Romanić (assist: V. Savicevic)
33'VojvodinaV. Savicevic
50'Mladost LucaniD. Ortíz (assist: O. Bondzulic)
90+2'VojvodinaM. Veličković (assist: L. Romanić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Lucani		Vojvodina
12	Shots	23
4	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	16
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	9
0	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
349	Passes	493
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Lucani 0.93 · Vojvodina 1.66. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Mladost Lucani 12 · Vojvodina 23; on target 4 and 8.
Vojvodina kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

P. Ilić→

4.06

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.4%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Mladost Lucani, 1.66 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (X2 — draw or Vojvodina win).
These values were computed from 772 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Lucani to win19.6%

Draw26.0%

Vojvodina to win54.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time43.0%

Vojvodina lead at half-time31.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Lucani ahead or level68.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 772 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mladost Lucani: at least 14Actual: 12
Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 7
Vojvodina: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.93

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.66

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%0–111.6%1–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.