Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

Jedinstvo Ub–Napredak

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Dragan Dzajić, Ub

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Jedinstvo Ub		Napredak
12	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
419	Passes	339
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Jedinstvo Ub 1.23 · Napredak 1.34. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Jedinstvo Ub 12 · Napredak 10; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

A. Stojanović→

2.72

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Napredak to win”. Second comes “Jedinstvo Ub to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Jedinstvo Ub, 1.34 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 771 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Jedinstvo Ub to win32.8%

Draw28.6%

Napredak to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,227 of 6,017 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time33.7%

Level at half-time42.7%

Napredak lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Jedinstvo Ub ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead66.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 771 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 19
Napredak: at least 15Actual: 16

Corners

Jedinstvo Ub: at least 4Actual: 8
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score1.23

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napredak's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score1.34

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 30% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.4%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.