Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

FK Crvena Zvezda–OFK Beograd

3–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'FK Crvena ZvezdaA. MaksimoviÄ (assist: A. Katai)
9'FK Crvena ZvezdaA. Katai
11'FK Crvena ZvezdaC. Ndiaye (assist: A. Katai)
88'OFK BeogradDiogo Bezerra (assist: S. Scepovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		OFK Beograd
24	Shots	9
12	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	9
6	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
582	Passes	304
525	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 3.18 · OFK Beograd 0.35. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 24 · OFK Beograd 9; on target 12 and 4.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

J. Šegrt→

2.15

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 91.9%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 6.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.18 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.35 for OFK Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 98.5% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 770 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win91.9%

Draw6.7%

OFK Beograd to win1.5%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 103 of 110 predictions were correct (93.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time63.0%

Level at half-time31.6%

OFK Beograd lead at half-time5.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level94.6%

12 — not level at half-time68.4%

X2 — level or OFK Beograd ahead37.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 770 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 13Actual: 13
OFK Beograd: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 6Actual: 6
OFK Beograd: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score3.18

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 133% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFK Beograd score0.35

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–016.6%2–015.1%4–013.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.