Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 30

Radnicki 1923–FK Partizan

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Čika Dača, Kragujevac

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

67'FK PartizanJ. Milosevic
74'FK PartizanJ. Milosevic (assist: M. Jurčević)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		FK Partizan
12	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
367	Passes	432
294	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.45 · FK Partizan 1.62. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Radnicki 1923 12 · FK Partizan 13; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

N. Minaković→

4.17

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “Radnicki 1923 to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Radnicki 1923, 1.62 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 769 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win33.4%

Draw25.9%

FK Partizan to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,218 of 3,680 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw59.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or FK Partizan win66.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time18.8%

Level at half-time39.1%

FK Partizan lead at half-time42.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level57.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or FK Partizan ahead81.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 769 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 15Actual: 14
FK Partizan: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 3
FK Partizan: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,728 of 2,752 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.45

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score1.62

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–29.6%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 769 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 103 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.