Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 29

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Mladost Lucani

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Mladost Lucani
18	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
621	Passes	308
552	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.25 · Mladost Lucani 0.98. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 18 · Mladost Lucani 6; on target 3 and 1.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

A. Živković→

4.56

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 0.98 for Mladost Lucani.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win or draw).
These values were computed from 766 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win41.8%

Draw30.6%

Mladost Lucani to win27.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time46.7%

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time30.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level69.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Mladost Lucani ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 766 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 16
Mladost Lucani: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 5Actual: 5
Mladost Lucani: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.25

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.98

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.8%0–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.