Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 29

IMT Novi Beograd–Novi Pazar

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		Novi Pazar
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
335	Passes	422
262	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.69 · Novi Pazar 1.28. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 14 · Novi Pazar 7; on target 6 and 1.
Novi Pazar kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Nikolić→

3.73

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “Novi Pazar to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.28 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 760 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win46.6%

Draw25.8%

Novi Pazar to win27.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,219 of 3,682 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw72.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Novi Pazar win53.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time41.5%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time33.8%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level66.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 760 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 14Actual: 17
Novi Pazar: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 3
Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,357 of 4,139 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.69

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.28

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.3%1–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 760 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 58 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.