Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 28

Novi Pazar–Železničar Pančevo

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 17 March 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Caizcoin Arena, Novi Pazar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Železničar PančevoBoris Sekulić · red card
39'Novi PazarAbdoulaye Cisse (assist: A. Mesarovic)
68'Novi PazarR. Antwi
76'Železničar PančevoMirko Milikić (assist: S. Cvetkovic)
88'Novi PazarJ. Uzuegbunam

Match statistics

Match statistics
Novi Pazar		Železničar Pančevo
22	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
547	Passes	377
484	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Novi Pazar 1.46 · Železničar Pančevo 1.23. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Novi Pazar 22 · Železničar Pančevo 9; on target 8 and 2.
Novi Pazar kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Milanović→

4.81

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “Železničar Pančevo to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Novi Pazar, 1.23 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 759 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Novi Pazar to win41.5%

Draw27.7%

Železničar Pančevo to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Novi Pazar lead at half-time43.6%

Level at half-time38.1%

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Novi Pazar ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Železničar Pančevo ahead56.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 759 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Novi Pazar: at least 15Actual: 13
Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 9

Corners

Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 9
Železničar Pančevo: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.46

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.23

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.7%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.