Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 28

FK Crvena Zvezda–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 March 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'FK Crvena ZvezdaBruno Duarte (assist: A. MaksimoviÄ)
73'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVS. Tomović (penalty)
90+17'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Ivanic (assist: C. Ndiaye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
27	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	5
19	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
11	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
74%	Possession	26%
605	Passes	216
545	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 3.12 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.21. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 27 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 6; on target 7 and 5.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

D. Trifković→

4.24

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 93.6%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 5.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.12 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.21 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 99.2% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 755 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win93.6%

Draw5.6%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win0.8%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 103 of 110 predictions were correct (93.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time70.1%

Level at half-time28.1%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time1.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level98.1%

12 — not level at half-time71.9%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead29.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 755 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 13Actual: 11
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 8

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 5Actual: 11
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score3.12

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 126% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.21

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 54% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–019.3%2–018.0%4–014.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.