Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 27

Železničar Pančevo–Tekstilac Odžaci

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 March 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Zeleznicar Pancevo, Pancevo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Železničar PančevoS. Cvetkovic (assist: D. Grgic)
54'Železničar PančevoK. Soni (assist: S. Cvetkovic)
90'Železničar PančevoB. Knezevic

Match statistics

Match statistics
Železničar Pančevo		Tekstilac Odžaci
7	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
4	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
280	Passes	504
220	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 1.50 · Tekstilac Odžaci 0.91. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Železničar Pančevo 7 · Tekstilac Odžaci 11; on target 6 and 1.
Tekstilac Odžaci kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

D. Matić→

3.10

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Železničar Pančevo, 0.91 for Tekstilac Odžaci.
The highest double chance value is 78.5% (1X — Železničar Pančevo win or draw).
These values were computed from 744 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win50.7%

Draw27.9%

Tekstilac Odžaci to win21.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time43.0%

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time25.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo ahead or level74.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Tekstilac Odžaci ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 744 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 20
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 17Actual: 18

Corners

Železničar Pančevo: at least 3Actual: 3
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.50

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score0.91

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–012.8%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.