Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 27

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–OFK Beograd

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 7 March 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'OFK BeogradF. Stojilkovic (assist: G. Vlijter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		OFK Beograd
10	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	1
3	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
462	Passes	295
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.14 · OFK Beograd 1.28. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 · OFK Beograd 4; on target 4 and 2.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

N. Minaković→

4.13

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “OFK Beograd to win”. Second comes “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.28 for OFK Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 743 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win31.9%

Draw29.5%

OFK Beograd to win38.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time23.6%

Level at half-time47.0%

OFK Beograd lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or OFK Beograd ahead76.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 743 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 19
OFK Beograd: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 7
OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.14

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.28

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–110.5%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.