Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 26

Novi Pazar–Napredak

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Monday, 3 March 2025 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Caizcoin Arena, Novi Pazar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Novi PazarV. Vidaković (assist: I. Lakićević)
45'Novi PazarI. Lakićević (assist: A. Adeshina)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Novi Pazar		Napredak
6	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
500	Passes	344
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Novi Pazar 1.60 · Napredak 1.11. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Novi Pazar 6 · Napredak 10; on target 4 and 2.
Novi Pazar kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

D. Trifković→

4.28

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Novi Pazar, 1.11 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — Novi Pazar win or draw).
These values were computed from 740 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Novi Pazar to win48.1%

Draw26.8%

Napredak to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Novi Pazar lead at half-time42.7%

Level at half-time40.5%

Napredak lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Novi Pazar ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead57.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 740 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Novi Pazar: at least 14Actual: 14
Napredak: at least 14Actual: 18

Corners

Novi Pazar: at least 5Actual: 5
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.60

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score1.11

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.4%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.