Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 26

FK Crvena Zvezda–IMT Novi Beograd

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'FK Crvena ZvezdaJ. Šljivić (assist: A. Katai)
46'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Jevtic (own goal)
70'FK Crvena ZvezdaN. Radonjic (assist: A. MaksimoviÄ)
81'FK Crvena ZvezdaBruno Duarte (assist: Seol Young-Woo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		IMT Novi Beograd
21	Shots	5
10	Shots on target	1
18	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
12	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
74%	Possession	26%
560	Passes	199
503	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 3.26 · IMT Novi Beograd 0.33. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 21 · IMT Novi Beograd 5; on target 10 and 1.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

S. Jeknić→

4.79

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 92.7%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 6.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.26 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.33 for IMT Novi Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 98.8% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 737 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win92.7%

Draw6.0%

IMT Novi Beograd to win1.2%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 103 of 110 predictions were correct (93.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time75.3%

Level at half-time23.9%

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time0.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level99.2%

12 — not level at half-time76.1%

X2 — level or IMT Novi Beograd ahead24.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 737 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 12Actual: 9
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 9

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 5Actual: 12
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score3.26

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 128% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 3.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score0.33

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 51% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–016.9%2–014.9%4–013.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.