Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 25

IMT Novi Beograd–OFK Beograd

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 February 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'IMT Novi BeogradVladimir Lučić (assist: N. Krstic)
83'OFK BeogradLazar Jovanović (assist: S. Scepovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		OFK Beograd
8	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
4	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
310	Passes	380
217	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.63 · OFK Beograd 1.20. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 8 · OFK Beograd 9; on target 2 and 6.
OFK Beograd kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Ilić→

4.18

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.7%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “OFK Beograd to win” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.20 for OFK Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 731 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win46.7%

Draw26.4%

OFK Beograd to win26.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time43.3%

OFK Beograd lead at half-time28.2%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level71.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or OFK Beograd ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 731 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 16Actual: 11
OFK Beograd: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 5
OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.63

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.20

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.3%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.