Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 25

FK Partizan–Mladost Lucani

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 February 2025 at 17:05
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Partizana, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'FK PartizanN. Nikolić (assist: A. Kalulu)
76'FK PartizanGoh Young-Jun (assist: M. Ilić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		Mladost Lucani
28	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	0
17	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
78%	Possession	22%
704	Passes	194
643	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 2.07 · Mladost Lucani 0.80. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FK Partizan 28 · Mladost Lucani 3; on target 7 and 0.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (78%).

Referee

D. Nikolić→

3.82

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.2%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.07 for FK Partizan, 0.80 for Mladost Lucani.
The highest double chance value is 87.9% (1X — FK Partizan win or draw).
These values were computed from 729 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win67.2%

Draw20.7%

Mladost Lucani to win12.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FK Partizan lead at half-time37.8%

Level at half-time41.7%

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Mladost Lucani ahead62.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 729 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 13Actual: 12
Mladost Lucani: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 5Actual: 4
Mladost Lucani: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score2.07

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.80

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%1–011.0%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.