Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 25

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Jedinstvo Ub

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 February 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

78'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVK. Osei (assist: V. Prijovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Jedinstvo Ub
20	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
46%	Possession	54%
402	Passes	493
304	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.37 · Jedinstvo Ub 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 20 · Jedinstvo Ub 8; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

A. Živković→

4.54

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 0.98 for Jedinstvo Ub.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win or draw).
These values were computed from 727 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win45.3%

Draw29.3%

Jedinstvo Ub to win25.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time46.1%

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Jedinstvo Ub ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 727 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 21
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 3
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.37

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score0.98

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–012.3%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.