Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 24

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Radnicki NIS

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 21 February 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVS. Tomović (assist: V. Prijovic)
68'Radnicki NISR. Bosic (assist: Trivante Stewart)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Radnicki NIS
12	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
407	Passes	414
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.10 · Radnicki NIS 1.35. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 12 · Radnicki NIS 8; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

S. Ostraćanin→

3.84

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.5%: “Radnicki NIS to win”. Second comes “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.35 for Radnicki NIS.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 720 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win29.4%

Draw29.1%

Radnicki NIS to win41.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time21.9%

Level at half-time45.3%

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Radnicki NIS ahead78.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 720 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 15
Radnicki NIS: at least 17Actual: 22

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 6
Radnicki NIS: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.10

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.35

Attack: Radnicki NIS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.8%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.