Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 23

IMT Novi Beograd–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'IMT Novi BeogradVladimir Lučić (assist: V. Radočaj)
75'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVS. Tomović (assist: M. Mijic)
90+4'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVS. Tomović

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
24	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
20	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	5
4	Offsides	6
44%	Possession	56%
359	Passes	477
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.58 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.91. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 24 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 9; on target 5 and 4.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

D. Nikolić→

3.74

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.8%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for IMT Novi Beograd, 0.91 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 712 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win52.8%

Draw26.9%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win20.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time33.6%

Level at half-time44.2%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead66.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 712 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 19
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 2
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.58

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.91

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–012.4%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.