Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 22

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Železničar Pančevo

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Železničar Pančevo
3	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	2
1	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
42%	Possession	58%
342	Passes	457
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.08 · Železničar Pančevo 1.20. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3 · Železničar Pančevo 7; on target 1 and 2.
Železničar Pančevo kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. Jovanović→

3.77

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.20 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 69.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 711 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win31.5%

Draw30.5%

Železničar Pančevo to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time24.3%

Level at half-time43.7%

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Železničar Pančevo ahead75.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 711 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 16
Železničar Pančevo: at least 15Actual: 7

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 1
Železničar Pančevo: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.08

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.20

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–111.5%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.