Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 22

OFK Beograd–Napredak

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion pod Kraljevicom, Zaječar

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'NapredakM. Šarić
80'NapredakMiloš Tošeski

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFK Beograd		Napredak
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFK Beograd 1.70 · Napredak 0.95. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots OFK Beograd 0 · Napredak 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

S. Jeknić→

4.85

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.9%: “OFK Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for OFK Beograd, 0.95 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — OFK Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 709 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFK Beograd to win54.9%

Draw25.6%

Napredak to win19.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

OFK Beograd lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time43.6%

Napredak lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — OFK Beograd ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFK Beograd: at least 14
Napredak: at least 15

Corners

OFK Beograd: at least 5
Napredak: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.70

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.95

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–011.3%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.