Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 22

Tekstilac Odžaci–Cukaricki

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 7 February 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski Stadion, Senta

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'CukarickiSlobodan Tedić (assist: L. Tufegdžić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tekstilac Odžaci		Cukaricki
4	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	5
61%	Possession	39%
484	Passes	309
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tekstilac Odžaci 0.95 · Cukaricki 1.65. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Tekstilac Odžaci 4 · Cukaricki 12; on target 1 and 5.
Tekstilac Odžaci kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

A. Živković→

4.58

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Tekstilac Odžaci, 1.65 for Cukaricki.
The highest double chance value is 79.9% (X2 — draw or Cukaricki win).
These values were computed from 704 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tekstilac Odžaci to win20.1%

Draw26.2%

Cukaricki to win53.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time41.4%

Cukaricki lead at half-time37.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Tekstilac Odžaci ahead or level62.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Cukaricki ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 704 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 17Actual: 15
Cukaricki: at least 13Actual: 22

Corners

Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 3Actual: 3
Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score0.95

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cukaricki score1.65

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%0–111.5%1–210.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.