Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

Radnicki 1923–OFK Beograd

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 3 February 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Čika Dača, Kragujevac

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'Radnicki 1923Aleksandar Djermanovic (own goal)
77'Radnicki 1923Evandro

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		OFK Beograd
11	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
320	Passes	358
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.89 · OFK Beograd 1.16. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Radnicki 1923 11 · OFK Beograd 17; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

M. Ivković→

3.57

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.3%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for Radnicki 1923, 1.16 for OFK Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw).
These values were computed from 703 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win54.3%

Draw24.1%

OFK Beograd to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,219 of 3,682 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw78.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.9%

X2 — draw or OFK Beograd win45.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time39.7%

OFK Beograd lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or OFK Beograd ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 703 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 17Actual: 18
OFK Beograd: at least 15Actual: 11

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 4
OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,357 of 4,139 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.89

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.16

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.8%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 703 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 20 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.