Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

Železničar Pančevo–Radnicki NIS

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 February 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Zeleznicar Pancevo, Pancevo

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Železničar Pančevo		Radnicki NIS
5	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	2
2	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
325	Passes	556
223	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 1.42 · Radnicki NIS 1.33. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Železničar Pančevo 5 · Radnicki NIS 9; on target 1 and 2.
Radnicki NIS kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

P. Ilić→

4.10

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “Radnicki NIS to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Železničar Pančevo, 1.33 for Radnicki NIS.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 702 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win38.3%

Draw27.6%

Radnicki NIS to win34.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	25

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time40.4%

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time32.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo ahead or level67.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Radnicki NIS ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 702 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 21
Radnicki NIS: at least 16Actual: 25

Corners

Železničar Pančevo: at least 4Actual: 1
Radnicki NIS: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.42

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.33

Attack: Radnicki NIS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.4%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.