Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

IMT Novi Beograd–Jedinstvo Ub

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 February 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'IMT Novi BeogradL. Luković
67'IMT Novi BeogradU. Bonnet (assist: V. Radočaj)

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		Jedinstvo Ub
15	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	4
58%	Possession	42%
466	Passes	346
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 2.15 · Jedinstvo Ub 0.81. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 15 · Jedinstvo Ub 10; on target 6 and 3.
IMT Novi Beograd kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Mitić→

4.02

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.8%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for IMT Novi Beograd, 0.81 for Jedinstvo Ub.
The highest double chance value is 88.6% (1X — IMT Novi Beograd win or draw).
These values were computed from 700 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win68.8%

Draw19.9%

Jedinstvo Ub to win11.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time41.6%

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time25.2%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level74.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Jedinstvo Ub ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 700 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 20
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 10

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 5Actual: 4
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score2.15

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score0.81

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%2–110.7%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.