Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

FK Partizan–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Partizana, Beograd

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVA. Todoroski
38'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVS. Tomović (assist: V. Prijovic)
74'FK PartizanA. Kalulu (assist: M. Vukotić)
88'FK PartizanA. Kalulu

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Partizan		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
18	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
75%	Possession	25%
650	Passes	204
577	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Partizan 2.09 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.73. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FK Partizan 18 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 7; on target 4 and 4.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (75%).

Referee

S. Jovanović→

3.82

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.5%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.09 for FK Partizan, 0.73 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — FK Partizan win or draw).
These values were computed from 699 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Partizan to win69.5%

Draw20.0%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win10.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

FK Partizan lead at half-time53.2%

Level at half-time37.4%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time9.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Partizan ahead or level90.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead46.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 699 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Partizan: at least 13Actual: 10
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

FK Partizan: at least 4Actual: 3
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Partizan score2.09

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.73

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.5%1–011.8%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.