Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 21

Novi Pazar–Tekstilac Odžaci

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Caizcoin Arena, Novi Pazar

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Tekstilac OdžaciIrfan Zulfić
21'Novi PazarA. Ziljkić (penalty)
43'Tekstilac OdžaciS. Stojanovic (assist: M. Ilic)
49'Novi PazarAbdoulaye Cisse (assist: A. Mesarovic)
53'Tekstilac OdžaciNikola Marjanović (assist: M. Ilic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Novi Pazar		Tekstilac Odžaci
13	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
408	Passes	286
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Novi Pazar 1.71 · Tekstilac Odžaci 0.90. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Novi Pazar 13 · Tekstilac Odžaci 15; on target 6 and 7.
Novi Pazar kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. Lukić→

4.66

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Novi Pazar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Novi Pazar, 0.90 for Tekstilac Odžaci.
The highest double chance value is 81.9% (1X — Novi Pazar win or draw).
These values were computed from 698 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Novi Pazar to win56.5%

Draw25.4%

Tekstilac Odžaci to win18.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	24

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Novi Pazar lead at half-time42.2%

Level at half-time40.9%

Tekstilac Odžaci lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Novi Pazar ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Tekstilac Odžaci ahead57.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 698 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Novi Pazar: at least 14Actual: 16
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 16Actual: 24

Corners

Novi Pazar: at least 4Actual: 7
Tekstilac Odžaci: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Novi Pazar score1.71

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tekstilac Odžaci's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tekstilac Odžaci score0.90

Attack: Tekstilac Odžaci score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–011.9%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.