Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 20

OFK Beograd–TSC Backa Topola

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 23 December 2024 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion pod Kraljevicom, Zaječar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'TSC Backa TopolaI. Milosavljević (assist: Milan Radin)
34'OFK BeogradN. Knezevic
56'TSC Backa TopolaM. Pantovic (assist: I. Đakovac)
87'OFK BeogradAleksa Cvetković (assist: E. Annan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFK Beograd		TSC Backa Topola
12	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
4	Offsides	5
55%	Possession	45%
476	Passes	397
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFK Beograd 1.20 · TSC Backa Topola 1.61. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots OFK Beograd 12 · TSC Backa Topola 11; on target 4 and 5.
OFK Beograd kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

I. Stamenković→

3.11

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.3%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “OFK Beograd to win” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for OFK Beograd, 1.61 for TSC Backa Topola.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 694 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFK Beograd to win27.1%

Draw26.6%

TSC Backa Topola to win46.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

OFK Beograd lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time42.4%

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — OFK Beograd ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or TSC Backa Topola ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 694 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFK Beograd: at least 14Actual: 16
TSC Backa Topola: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 3
TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.20

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.61

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%1–210.3%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.