Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 20

IMT Novi Beograd–Železničar Pančevo

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 December 2024 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Lagator, Belgrade

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Železničar PančevoL. Romanić (assist: D. Grgic)
35'IMT Novi BeogradU. Bonnet

Match statistics

Match statistics
IMT Novi Beograd		Železničar Pančevo
24	Shots	5
9	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
6	Corners	0
4	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
402	Passes	352
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IMT Novi Beograd 1.55 · Železničar Pančevo 1.25. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots IMT Novi Beograd 24 · Železničar Pančevo 5; on target 9 and 2.
IMT Novi Beograd kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

S. Jovanović→

3.80

yellows per match

0.04

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “Železničar Pančevo to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for IMT Novi Beograd, 1.25 for Železničar Pančevo.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 688 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IMT Novi Beograd to win43.6%

Draw27.0%

Železničar Pančevo to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time40.1%

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — IMT Novi Beograd ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Železničar Pančevo ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 688 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 15Actual: 17
Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4
Železničar Pančevo: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.55

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.25

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.0%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.