Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 19

Radnicki 1923–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 16 December 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion Čika Dača, Kragujevac

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Radnicki 1923Evandro (assist: K. Bevis)
90+3'Radnicki 1923T. Dadić (assist: M. Gluščević)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
12	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
331	Passes	309
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 2.01 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.80. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Radnicki 1923 12 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 7; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

M. Marković→

3.61

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.2%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for Radnicki 1923, 0.80 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw).
These values were computed from 684 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win66.2%

Draw21.3%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win12.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time55.2%

Level at half-time35.4%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time9.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level90.6%

12 — not level at half-time64.6%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead44.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 684 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 17Actual: 19
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 4
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score2.01

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.80

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (36% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.6%1–011.4%1–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.