Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 19

Železničar Pančevo–Jedinstvo Ub

6–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 December 2024 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Zeleznicar Pancevo, Pancevo

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Železničar PančevoL. Romanić (penalty)
39'Železničar PančevoN. Milunović (assist: N. Djuricic)
56'Železničar PančevoD. Grgic (assist: Francis Ezeh)
58'Železničar PančevoFrancis Ezeh (assist: N. Djuricic)
80'Železničar PančevoM. Konatar (assist: Francis Ezeh)
82'Železničar Pančevo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Železničar Pančevo		Jedinstvo Ub
16	Shots	5
12	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	1
4	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
474	Passes	367
402	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 1.73 · Jedinstvo Ub 0.88. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Železničar Pančevo 16 · Jedinstvo Ub 5; on target 12 and 2.
Železničar Pančevo kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Ilić→

4.12

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.4%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Železničar Pančevo, 0.88 for Jedinstvo Ub.
The highest double chance value is 82.5% (1X — Železničar Pančevo win or draw).
These values were computed from 679 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win57.4%

Draw25.1%

Jedinstvo Ub to win17.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time32.0%

Level at half-time41.4%

Jedinstvo Ub lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Jedinstvo Ub ahead68.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 679 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 17
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Železničar Pančevo: at least 4Actual: 5
Jedinstvo Ub: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.73

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Jedinstvo Ub concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Jedinstvo Ub score0.88

Attack: Jedinstvo Ub score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–012.0%2–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.