Super Liga · Serbia · Regular Season - 6

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–FK Partizan

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 12 December 2024 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'FK PartizanN. Nikolić (assist: B. Natcho)
24'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVS. Tomović (assist: I. Babić)
55'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVV. Ubiparip (assist: M. Mijic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		FK Partizan
10	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	9
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
38%	Possession	62%
334	Passes	531
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0.90 · FK Partizan 1.86. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 · FK Partizan 16; on target 4 and 1.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Mitić→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.0%: “FK Partizan to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.86 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (X2 — draw or FK Partizan win).
These values were computed from 677 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win16.3%

Draw23.7%

FK Partizan to win60.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time11.9%

Level at half-time39.5%

FK Partizan lead at half-time48.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level51.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or FK Partizan ahead88.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 677 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 18
FK Partizan: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 2
FK Partizan: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score0.90

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score1.86

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%0–211.2%0–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.